The counteroffer: why the math usually fails
Accepting a counteroffer feels like winning twice. The statistics and the politics say otherwise.
You resign; your employer matches or beats the offer; you stay. Everyone smiles. And in financial services, the majority of people who accept counteroffers are gone within a year anyway - pushed, restructured, or leaving of their own accord, now without the external offer they burned.
Why it fails structurally
- The reason you resigned rarely disappears with the raise
- You are now marked: loyal until priced, flight risk in every subsequent planning conversation
- The raise often comes from next year's budget - your future increases are pre-spent
- When cuts come, the person who once resigned is the easiest name on the list
When staying is right
Occasionally the counteroffer fixes the actual problem: the role changes, the reporting line changes, the mandate expands. If the resignation was about the work and the counter changes the work, staying can be rational. If the resignation was about anything deeper - culture, trust, trajectory - the money is a bandage.
The discipline
Decide your answer before you resign, not during the meeting. If you would not stay for any counter, say a clean no on the spot: it preserves the relationship, the reference, and your reputation for meaning what you say. If you would consider one, you have not actually decided to leave - and you should not be resigning yet.